- 20 Marks
Question
With reference to PSBR (Public Sector Borrowing Requirement) and its effect on money supply, the source of financing it may not be more relevant than the medium of borrowing that underlies it. Discuss.
[20 Marks]
Answer
In my roles analyzing fiscal-monetary links at GCB Bank, PSBR (public sector net borrowing) impacts money supply (M2 growth), but the medium (how borrowed) matters more than source (who lends), per BoG’s monetary control under Act 930. Post-DDEP, this was evident in Ghana’s debt management.
Understanding PSBR and Money Supply (4 Marks): PSBR arises from deficits; financing expands money if via banks (creating deposits) vs. non-inflationary if via bonds to non-banks.
Source vs. Medium Relevance (8 Marks): Source (e.g., domestic banks, foreign lenders, public) is secondary; medium (e.g., short-term T-bills vs. long bonds, monetary vs. non-monetary) determines impact. Monetary financing (BoG printing) inflates supply directly; non-monetary (bond sales) may crowd out without expansion if to savers. Example: Ghana’s 2022 PSBR financed via T-bills to banks increased M2 by 30%, fueling inflation; foreign bonds (Eurobonds) had less domestic impact but forex risks.
Discussion of Effects (8 Marks): Medium affects velocity: Short-term debt rolls over, pressuring rates; long-term stabilizes. In DDEP, swapping short for long bonds reduced liquidity risks but initial bank holdings expanded money. BoG mitigates via OMO. Argument: Medium underlies transmission—e.g., Basel-compliant banks amplify via multipliers. However, sources matter in BoP (foreign inflows support reserves). Overall, medium is key for control, as fiscal dominance in Ghana (pre-2023 IMF) showed medium shifts to sustainable borrowing curbed M2 growth to 15% by 2025.
In practice, BoG emphasizes medium for stability, aligning with demand management.
- Topic: The money supply
- Series: APR 2023
- Uploader: Samuel Duah