Question Tag: Forecasting

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MA – Nov 2024 – L2 – Q2a – Budgetary Control

Preparation of a budgeted profit and loss account for Ankawa LTD for the year ending 31 December 2025.

Question

Ankawa LTD makes and sells a single product ‘Dee’. The following information is available for use in the budgeting process for the year 2025.

i) Sales targets have been proposed for four quarters in 2025 and the first quarter in 2026:

Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4	Quarter 1 (2026)
Sales (GH¢)	240,000	160,000	144,000	224,000	192,000

Selling price per unit of Dee is expected to be GH¢20.

ii) Inventory levels

At 31 December 2024: Finished units of Dee: 3,000 units
Raw materials: 7,000kg
Closing inventory of finished product Dee at the end of each quarter is budgeted as a percentage of sales units of the following quarter:
- Quarters 1 and 2: 25%
- Quarters 3 and 4: 35%
Closing inventory of raw materials is budgeted to fall by 600kg at the end of each quarter.

iii) Product Dee unit data:

Material: 8kg at GH¢1.60 per kg
Direct labour: 1.2 hours at GH¢3.50 per hour

iv) Other budgeted quarterly expenditure for 2025:

Quarter	Fixed Overhead (GH¢)	Capital Expenditure (GH¢)
Quarter 1	10,000	10,000
Quarter 2	18,000	–
Quarter 3	27,000	–
Quarter 4	30,000	–

v) Depreciation

Property is depreciated on a straight-line basis at 5% per annum based on total cost.
Value of property as at 31 December 2024: GH¢100,000.

vi) Inventory of product Dee is valued on a marginal cost basis for internal budget purposes.

Required:

Prepare the budgeted profit and loss account for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Answer

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Tags: Budgeting, Costing, Financial planning, Forecasting, Profit and Loss
Level: Level 2

Topic: Budgetary control
Series: Nov 2024

FM – May 2024 – L3 – SB – Q3 – Financial Planning and Forecasting

Evaluate financing options for Tope's Cellular Stores, including impact on profit, EPS, gearing, and shareholder perspective.

Question

Tope operates a chain of cellular telephone stores in the country. An abbreviated profit or loss account and statement of financial position of the business for the year that has just ended is as follows:

Abbreviated Profit or Loss Account for the Year Ended 31 May 2023

Item	Amount (₦’000)
Sales	6,450
Operating profit for the year	800
Interest payable	(160)
Net profit before taxation	640
Tax (20%)	(128)
Net profit after taxation	512
Dividends proposed	(256)
Retained profit for the year	256

Abbreviated Statement of Financial Position as at 31 May 2023

Item	Amount (₦’000)
Non-current assets at written down values	3,500
Current assets	1,800
Less: Current liabilities	(1,100)
Net Current Assets	700
Total Assets	4,200
Less: Long-term liabilities	(2,000)
Net Assets	2,200
Capital and Reserves
₦0.50 ordinary shares	600
Retained profit	1,600
Total Capital and Reserves	2,200

The company is expecting a surge in sales following advances in cellular telephone technology that should translate into additional operating profits of ₦180,000 per year for the foreseeable future. However, the company will need to invest ₦1,200,000 immediately in expanding the asset base of the business if it is to achieve these additional profits.

The business has approached a large supplier that already has an equity investment in the business to see whether it would be prepared to provide further funds for the business. The supplier has indicated it would be willing to provide the necessary funds by either:

(i) An issue of ₦0.50 ordinary shares at a premium of ₦1.50 per share; or
(ii) An issue of ₦1,200,000 10% debt at par.

The Board of Directors of Tope has already announced that it will maintain the same dividend payout ratio in future years as in the past, and that this policy will be unaffected by the form of finance raised.

Required:

a. For each of the financing options: i. Prepare a forecast profit or loss account for the forthcoming year. (5 Marks)
ii. Calculate the forecast earnings per share for the forthcoming year. (2 Marks)
iii. Calculate the projected level of gearing (D/(D+E)) at the end of the forthcoming year. (2 Marks)

b. Calculate the level of operating profit at which the earnings per share will be the same under each financing option. (3 Marks)

c. Evaluate each of the financing options from the viewpoint of an existing shareholder. (2 Marks)

d. Discuss the factors that will influence a company to finance through debt or equity, and whether to opt for long-term or short-term debt. (6 Marks)

(Total: 20 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Debt Financing, Dividend Policy, Earnings Per Share, Equity Financing, Financing Options, Forecasting, Gearing Ratio, Shareholder Value
Level: Level 3

Topic: Financial Planning and Forecasting
Series: MAY 2024

PM – Nov 2024 – L2 – Q3 – Budgeting and Budgetary Control

Outline key stages in linking long-term objectives to budgetary control, and explain different budgeting types and forecasting methods.

Question

You are the management accountant of a large manufacturing company in Kaduna. A management retreat has been planned for next week to set the agenda for the preparation for next year’s budget.

Required:

a. Outline the key stages in the planning process that link long-term objectives and budgetary control. (8 Marks)

b. Explain the meaning of the terms ‘fixed budget’, ‘rolling budget’, and ‘zero-based budget’, and discuss the circumstances under which each budget might be used. (8 Marks)

c. Discuss whether time series analysis may be preferred to linear regression as a way of forecasting sales volume. (4 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Budgeting, Fixed Budget, Forecasting, Planning Process, Rolling Budget, Time Series Analysis, Zero-Based Budget
Level: Level 2

Topic: Budgeting and Budgetary Control

MI – Nov 2020 – L1 – SB – Q1 – Budgeting

Prepare the cash budget for the first three months of the year based on provided sales, expenses, and additional company details.

Question

WXYZ is preparing for the first half of the next year. The following information was available:

a. Sales – 15% of monthly sales are in cash, while the balance is sold on credit. Collections from receivables are 50% in the first month after sales, 30% in the second month, and the balance in the third month after sales.
b. Purchases are usually 55% of sales and paid in the month of purchase.
c. Insurance company is expected to pay the sum of N525,000 in February based on the company’s accidented vehicles.
d. Salary deductions are paid on a preceding-month basis.
e. Company income tax of N475,550 will be paid in March.
f. Cash and cash equivalent balance as at December is N502,760.
g. Bank charges are 1% of total payments for the month.
h. Additional Information:

Month	October (N)	November (N)	December (N)	January (N)	February (N)	March (N)
Sales	750,000	600,000	850,000	520,000	670,000	800,000
Net Salaries	230,000	200,000	250,000	210,000	240,000	270,000
Other Expenses	200,700	187,500	197,500	177,200	187,500	192,700
Salaries Deductions	29,400	28,400	39,400	28,700	32,750	27,650

Required:
Prepare the cash budget for the first three months of the year. (Total 20 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cash Budget, Forecasting, Payables, Purchases, Receivables, Sales
Level: Level 1

Topic: Budgeting
Series: NOV 2020

PM – Nov 2019 – L2 – Q4 – Cost Management Strategies

Calculate the learning curve rate, forecast shut-down costs for year 2 and 3, and discuss potential errors in the forecast.

Question

Akoko plc. has recently developed a new product called “EKO” which has been in production for the past year. The plant producing “EKO” shuts down for routine inspection and maintenance every three months, and during the first year’s operation, the costs of shut-down have been as follows:

Quarter	Shut-Down Cost (₦)
I	36,000
2	28,800
3	27,000
4	25,200

The management accountant attempts to forecast maintenance costs for the coming year. On examining the data, it appears that these costs have steadily decreased, which may be due to maintenance engineers becoming more efficient or the plant settling down after initial operational issues. The learning curve might explain this trend.

Required:
a. Explain the concept of a learning curve. (4 Marks)
b. Estimate the rate of learning inherent in the data and explain its meaning. (4 Marks)
c. Using the learning rate determined, forecast the total cost of shut-down for routine maintenance during the coming year. (5 Marks)
d. Assume learning ceases at the end of the second year; forecast the total cost of shut-down for routine maintenance during the third year. (4 Marks)
e. State TWO specific reasons why this forecast may be inaccurate. (3 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cost reduction, Forecasting, Learning Curve, Maintenance
Level: Level 2

Topic: Cost Management Strategies
Series: NOV 2019

QTB – May 2017 – L1 – SA – Q14 – Statistics

This question involves identifying the estimable components of a time series.

Question

The TWO components of a Time Series which are usually estimable are:
A. Trend and Cyclic variation
B. Seasonal variation and Trend
C. Random movements and Trend
D. Seasonal variation and Random movements
E. Cyclic variation and Seasonal variation

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Seasonal Variation, Time series, Trend
Level: Level 1

Topic: Statistics
Series: MAY 2017

QTB – Nov 2014 – L1 – SA – Q6 – Forecasting

Identifies the method that is not considered a quantitative forecasting technique.

Question

The following are quantitative techniques of forecasting in business analysis EXCEPT:
A. Regression analysis
B. Delphi method
C. Moving average
D. Exponential smoothing
E. Time series analysis

Answer

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Tags: Business Analysis, Forecasting, Quantitative Techniques
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2014

QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SB – Q6b – Operations Research

This question involves calculating seasonal adjustments based on moving average analysis for sales data.

Question

i. The following moving average analysis is obtained for the quarterly sales of a bakery based on the additive model:

Quarter	Trend	Actual Sales in the Quarter	Variation (Actual – Trend)
Year 1: Q3	29.375	29	-0.375
Year 1: Q4	33.125	33	-0.125
Year 2: Q1	37.125	37	-0.125
Year 2: Q2	41.250	41	-0.250
Year 2: Q3	45.000	46	1.000
Year 2: Q4	47.875	48	0.125
Year 3: Q1	53.000	51	-2.000
Year 3: Q2	57.125	58	0.875

Required:
Calculate the seasonal adjustment for each quarter.
(6 marks)

ii. An electrical bulb-making company runs a production line that contains 760 bulbs of the same wattage. These bulbs fail on a regular basis according to the following probability distribution:

Life (months)	Probability of Failure (P)
1	0.27
2	0.56
3	0.17

Required:
If the cost of replacing a bulb is N60, determine the following:

The life span (2 marks)
The average number of replacements in the period (1 mark)
The average monthly cost of replacing the bulbs. (1 mark)

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Moving Averages, Seasonal Adjustment
Level: Level 1

Topic: Operations Research
Series: MAY 2016

QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SB – Q3 – Statistics

This question involves using the least squares method to fit a trend line for annual expenditures and make future forecasts.

Question

The annual expenditures (N’000) of a family from 2000 to 2009 were as follows:

Year	Expenditure (N’000)
2000	600
2001	610
2002	580
2003	590
2004	480
2005	560
2006	550
2007	620
2008	490
2009	530

Required:
a. Setting year 2000 as $x = 0$ , fit the least squares line for the annual expenditures.
(15 marks)

b. Forecast what the expenditure will be in the years:
i. 2012 (2½ marks)
ii. 2016 (2½ marks)

Answer

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Tags: Expenditure, Forecasting, Least Squares, Trend Analysis
Level: Level 1

Topic: Statistics
Series: MAY 2016

QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SA – Q17 – Statistics

Calculating the trend stock for a future month based on historical stock figures.

Question

A company takes stock for 5 months in each year. The stock figures of materials for the most recent three years are as tabulated below:

Determine the trend stock for month 6.

A. 84

B. 85

C. 86

D. 87

E. 88

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Time series, Trend Analysis
Level: Level 1

Topic: Statistics
Series: MAY 2016

QT – Nov 2016 – L1 – Q3 – Forecasting

Derive a regression forecasting equation for iron rod demand based on construction permits and analyze the results.

Question

The Branch Manager of a building material production plant feels that the demand for iron rod shipments may be related to the number of construction permits issued in the country during the previous quarter. The Manager has collected the data shown in the table below:

Construction Permits	Iron Rods
15	6
9	4
40	16
20	6
25	13
25	9
15	10
35	16

Required:

i) Use the normal equations of the least square regression method to derive a regression forecasting equation for the data. (9 marks)
ii) Interpret your regression coefficient in (i) above. (1 mark)
iii) Using the regression line in (a) above, determine a point estimate for Iron Rods when the number of construction permits is 30. (2 marks)
iv) Is your estimate in (iii) above reliable? Give reason(s) for your answer. (2 marks)
v) Calculate the coefficient of determination and interpret it. (6 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Construction Permits, Forecasting, Iron Rods, Regression
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2016

QT – May 2018 – L1 – Q4 – Forecasting

Calculate centered moving averages, seasonal variations, and forecast sales using the multiplicative model.

Question

a) The quarterly unit sales of electronic items of a retail company for the last three years are as follows:

Year	Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4
2013	100	115	70	210
2014	120	165	100	220
2015	150	195	120	270

Required:
i) Calculate a centered three-moving average of the unit sales. (3 marks)
ii) Calculate the trend using a centered four-quarterly moving average. (4 marks)
iii) Calculate the four seasonal variations using (ii) and the multiplicative model. (7 marks)
iv) Forecast the number of unit sales for the year 2016 using the multiplicative model. (4 marks)
v) Comment on your answer in (iv). (2 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Moving Averages, Seasonal Variations, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: MAY 2018

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6b – Forecasting

Calculate the moving average, trend values, seasonal variation, and forecast membership.

Question

Membership of Pro Amalion, a network of professional volunteers, has grown over the years but in the months of the second quarter, there was always a decline. The table below shows membership records for a period of four years:

Year	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
Year 1	713	694	735	755
Year 2	767	733	766	780
Year 3	787	755	798	814
Year 4	816	790	826	843

Required:
i) Calculate the centered four-quarterly moving average of membership. (4 marks)
ii) Using a least squares trend equation based on (i) above, calculate the trend values. (5 marks)
iii) Using (ii) above, calculate the percentage seasonal variation and the average seasonal variation of membership. (5 marks)
iv) Determine the seasonally adjusted forecast of membership for each of the four quarters of Year 5. (4 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Forecasting, Least Squares, Membership Forecast, Moving Averages, Seasonal Variation, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2018

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

Question

State the TWO (2) main models of time series analysis. (2 marks)

Answer

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Tags: Additive model, Forecasting, Models, Multiplicative Model, Time series
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2018

QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Explain the term coefficient of correlation in forecasting.

Question

Explain the term Coefficient of Correlation in forecasting.

Answer

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Tags: Coefficient of Correlation, Forecasting, Regression
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2018

QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q3 – Forecasting

Calculate the regression line for maize demand and forecast demand for the first three months of the next year using regression analysis.

Question

The monthly demand for maize (in hundreds of bags) for the last year in Bosua Market is shown below:

Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Demand	42	43	40	44	50	47	53	49	54	57	63	60

Required:
(a) Calculate the regression line $y = a + b x$ for the data. (9 Marks)

(b) Using the regression line in (a), determine the forecast for next year:
(i) January, (1 Mark)
(ii) February, (1 Mark)
(iii) March. (1 Mark)

Answer

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Tags: Demand forecast, Forecasting, Regression Analysis, Standard error, Trend Analysis
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2015

QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q1b – Forecasting

Calculate the trend, average seasonal variation, and forecast for Year 4 using a 4-point centered moving average method for Golden Tree Chocolate Bar sales.

Question

Quarterly sales of a Golden Tree Chocolate Bar at a popular mall in KoKoLand City are given as follows:

YEAR	QUARTER 1	QUARTER 2	QUARTER 3	QUARTER 4
1	1260	756	588	1596
2	1352	966	579	2028
3	1786	920	865	2273

Required:
(i) Calculate the trend in the series using a 4-point centered moving average method. (4 Marks)

(ii) Using (i), calculate the Average Seasonal Variation based on the Additive Model of Time Series analysis. (4 Marks)

(iii) Using the values in (ii), determine the Adjusted Average Seasonal Variation for the Time Series Data. (4 Marks)

(iv) Prepare Seasonal Adjusted Forecast for Year 4 using the Additive Model. (4 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Additive model, Forecasting, Seasonal Variation, Time series, Trend Analysis
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2015

QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

State the four factors commonly found in time series data.

Question

State the four (4) factors which may be present in a Time Series Data. (4 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cyclical, Factors, Forecasting, Random, Seasonal, Time series, Trend
Level: Level 1

Topic: Forecasting
Series: NOV 2015

MA – Aug 2022 – L2 – Q2b – Budgetary control

This question asks for the similarities and differences between a budget and a standard in financial control.

Question

Budgets and standards are very similar and interrelated, but there are notable differences between them.

Required:
Explain TWO (2) similarities and TWO (2) differences between a budget and a standard.

Answer

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Tags: Budgeting, Financial Control, Forecasting, Standard Costing
Level: Level 2

Topic: Budgetary control
Series: AUG 2022

MA – Nov 2020 – L2 – Q1 – Budgetary Control

Prepare a financial analysis statement showing the current annual forecast of costs, revenues, and profits for the years 2019-2021 for a motor car manufacturer.

Question

A motor car manufacturer has been specializing in the production and sale of Bedford model cars. The model is somewhat outmoded, and the current sales forecast indicates that the current (2018) sales level of 150,000 will be the same as in 2019 but will decline to 130,000 cars in 2020 and 110,000 cars in 2021. The company supplies according to orders received, and no stocks are held. Carbon monoxide emission regulations will prevent the model from being manufactured and sold after December 2021.

The company’s current estimates of the selling price and costs in 2019 are as follows:

Per car (GH¢)	Amount (GH¢)
Selling Price	11,200
Production costs:
– Material and Labour (vary with production volume)	3,600
– Assembly	4,000
– Delivery	2,500

75% and 40% of the assembly and delivery costs respectively are fixed, and the remainder vary with production volume.
In addition, the company estimates that it will incur the following non-production costs:
- Marketing costs of GH¢60 million would be amortized on a straight-line basis over three years.
- The Administration costs of GH¢10 million are fixed per annum.
- The selling price, variable costs per car, and total fixed costs are expected to remain constant throughout the period from 2019 to 2021.

The company’s Managing Director is unhappy with the current annual profit forecasts for 2019–2021 based on the information above and believes that the company has the potential to increase the profit to a desired level of GH¢245 million in each of the years 2019 to 2021. The Managing Director has undertaken a strategic review and developed the following strategies to eliminate the gap:

Strategy 1: A marketing proposal will enable the company to enter a new overseas market with the result that the total (including the overseas market) sales level will be stabilized at 160,000 cars per annum from 2019 to 2021. The market entry costs will be GH¢30 million for each of the three years.

Strategy 2: A re-design of the car will enhance its sales appeal and will permit the company to increase its selling price to GH¢12,000. The re-design costs are GH¢30 million and are to be amortized over three years on a straight-line basis.

Strategy 3: A radical cost reduction program will improve efficiency and lower all variable costs by 20%. This will add GH¢70 million to the annual fixed overheads each year from 2019 to 2021.

Required:

a) Prepare a financial analysis statement showing the current annual forecast of costs, revenues, and profits for each of the years 2019 to 2021 and briefly comment on the figures. (Ignore the time value of money)

b) Calculate the profit gap for 2019, 2020, and 2021.

c) Estimate the profit in 2019 if:

i) Strategy 1 was implemented;
ii) Strategy 2 was implemented;
iii) Strategy 3 was implemented.

d) Evaluate which strategy to implement

Answer

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Tags: Budgetary Control, Financial Statement, Forecasting, Marginal Costing, Profit Analysis
Level: Level 2

Topic: Budgetary control
Series: NOV 2020

Question Tag: Forecasting

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MA – Nov 2024 – L2 – Q2a – Budgetary Control

Preparation of a budgeted profit and loss account for Ankawa LTD for the year ending 31 December 2025.

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FM – May 2024 – L3 – SB – Q3 – Financial Planning and Forecasting

Evaluate financing options for Tope's Cellular Stores, including impact on profit, EPS, gearing, and shareholder perspective.

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PM – Nov 2024 – L2 – Q3 – Budgeting and Budgetary Control

Outline key stages in linking long-term objectives to budgetary control, and explain different budgeting types and forecasting methods.

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MI – Nov 2020 – L1 – SB – Q1 – Budgeting

Prepare the cash budget for the first three months of the year based on provided sales, expenses, and additional company details.

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PM – Nov 2019 – L2 – Q4 – Cost Management Strategies

Calculate the learning curve rate, forecast shut-down costs for year 2 and 3, and discuss potential errors in the forecast.

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QTB – May 2017 – L1 – SA – Q14 – Statistics

This question involves identifying the estimable components of a time series.

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QTB – Nov 2014 – L1 – SA – Q6 – Forecasting

Identifies the method that is not considered a quantitative forecasting technique.

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QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SB – Q6b – Operations Research

This question involves calculating seasonal adjustments based on moving average analysis for sales data.

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QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SB – Q3 – Statistics

This question involves using the least squares method to fit a trend line for annual expenditures and make future forecasts.

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QTB – May 2016 – L1 – SA – Q17 – Statistics

Calculating the trend stock for a future month based on historical stock figures.

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QT – Nov 2016 – L1 – Q3 – Forecasting

Derive a regression forecasting equation for iron rod demand based on construction permits and analyze the results.

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QT – May 2018 – L1 – Q4 – Forecasting

Calculate centered moving averages, seasonal variations, and forecast sales using the multiplicative model.

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QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6b – Forecasting

Calculate the moving average, trend values, seasonal variation, and forecast membership.

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QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q6a – Forecasting

State the two main models of time series analysis.

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QT – Nov 2018 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

Explain the term coefficient of correlation in forecasting.

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q3 – Forecasting

Calculate the regression line for maize demand and forecast demand for the first three months of the next year using regression analysis.

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q1b – Forecasting

Calculate the trend, average seasonal variation, and forecast for Year 4 using a 4-point centered moving average method for Golden Tree Chocolate Bar sales.

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q1a – Forecasting

State the four factors commonly found in time series data.

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MA – Aug 2022 – L2 – Q2b – Budgetary control

This question asks for the similarities and differences between a budget and a standard in financial control.

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MA – Nov 2020 – L2 – Q1 – Budgetary Control

Prepare a financial analysis statement showing the current annual forecast of costs, revenues, and profits for the years 2019-2021 for a motor car manufacturer.

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