- 20 Marks
Question
It has been stated that “a weakening currency, high debt and increasing global food and oil prices are a dangerous combination for Ghana”. The recent free fall of the Ghanaian cedi has given some credence to that assertion. Discuss the causes for the falling cedi and the measures the authorities have put in place to address that trend?
(20 Marks)
Answer
The statement highlights a toxic mix: cedi depreciation amplifies import costs (food/oil), inflating debt burdens in local terms, risking default spirals—as in Ghana’s 2022 crisis where cedi fell 50%+, inflation hit 54%, and debt/GDP exceeded 100%.
Causes of falling cedi:
- Current Account Deficits: Chronic trade imbalances (imports > exports); oil price surges (2022 Russia-Ukraine war) widened gaps.
- Capital Flight: Investor outflows due to high debt, rating downgrades (Moody’s Ca in 2022); speculative attacks on managed float.
- Fiscal Imbalances: High PSBR monetization erodes confidence; pre-DDEP, government borrowing pressured reserves.
- External Shocks: Global rate hikes (US Fed) attract funds away; commodity volatility affects export earnings (cocoa/gold).
- Domestic Factors: Inflation differentials (PPP theory); weak productivity, corruption perceptions.
- Speculation and Black Market: Parallel rates widen premia, as in 2022’s 20%+ gap.
Measures by authorities (BoG/Government):
- Forex Interventions: BoG sold $450m+ in auctions (2022-2023) to supply dollars, per forex regulations.
- Monetary Tightening: Raised MPR to 29% (2023-2025) to curb inflation and attract inflows.
- IMF Support: $3bn ECF (2023) for reserves buildup and reforms.
- Gold Purchase Program: Mandated miners sell 20% gold to BoG (2023), boosting reserves to $7bn+ by 2025.
- Fiscal Reforms: DDEP restructured domestic debt; expenditure cuts, revenue measures (e.g., E-Levy).
- Export Incentives: Accelerated AfCFTA implementation for diversification.
- Capital Controls: Temporary limits on forex outflows, compliant with IMF.
- Digital Initiatives: CBDC (e-Cedi pilot) to enhance efficiency, reduce dollarization.
These stabilized the cedi (appreciating slightly in 2024), but sustainability requires structural fixes like industrialization for long-term resilience.
- Tags: Causes, Ghanaian Cedi, Global Prices, High Debt, Measures, Weakening Currency
- Level: Level 2
- Topic: Exchange rates
- Series: OCT 2022
- Uploader: Samuel Duah