FM – L2 – Q68 – Discounted Cash Flow

Accra Nova Cosmetics Limited has designed a new product that it would like to introduce to the market. It has spent GH¢250,000 on the design work so far. A market research report has indicated that the product will have a life of four years, and at a selling price of GH¢35 per unit, annual sales would be as follows:

Year Sales (units)
1 40,000
2 60,000
3 60,000
4 20,000

It has been estimated that to produce the new product, annual fixed production costs (all cash flows) will increase by GH¢200,000, and the variable cost per unit will be GH¢10.
Other cash flows for the project will be:

  • Capital expenditure of GH¢1,400,000 at the beginning of the project. There will be a residual value of GH¢600,000 from this investment at the end of Year 4.
  • An investment of GH¢400,000 will be required in working capital. This will be recovered at the end of Year 4.
  • Expenditure on advertising will be required, as follows:

Year Advertising costs
0 800,000
1 600,000
2 400,000
3 200,000

Required
(a) Calculate the expected NPV of the project to launch the new product, if the company’s cost of capital is 12%.

(b) Calculate the target cost for the product that is needed to achieve a return of 12% on investment and calculate the size of the current cost gap.

(A). NPV of the project

Year Working capital Cost/residual value Sales revenue Advertising costs Fixed production (cash) costs Net cash flows, excluding variable costs Discount factor at 12% Present va

lue

0 (400) (1,400) (800) (2,600) 1.000 (2,600)
1 1,400 (600) (200) 600 0.893 536
2 2,100 (400) (200) 1,500 0.797 1,196
3 2,100 (200) (200) 1,700 0.712 1,210
4 400 600 700 (200) 1,500 0.636 954
NPV 1,296

(B).

The target cost per unit is the maximum variable cost per unit that would result in an NPV of zero.
From the answer to part (a), the NPV of the project, ignoring variable costs, is GH¢1,296,000.
The variable cost per unit is GH¢10.

Year Sales Variable cost per unit Total variable cost Discount factor at 12% Present value
1 40,000 10 400 0.893 357
2 60,000 10 600 0.797 478
3 60,000 10 600 0.712 427
4 20,000 10 200 0.636 127
1,389

The NPV of the project, allowing for variable costs, is therefore 1,296 – 1,389 = GH¢(93,000).
To achieve a return of 12%, the NPV should be zero, so the PV of the variable costs should be reduced by GH¢93,000, to GH¢1,296,000.
Total sales are 40,000 + 60,000 + 60,000 + 20,000 = 180,000 units.
The target cost per unit is therefore:
PV of variable costs = 1,296,000 / (357 + 478 + 427 + 127) = 1,296,000 / 1,389 = 0.933 × 10 = GH¢9.33.
The current cost gap per unit is therefore GH¢10 – GH¢9.33 = GH¢0.67 per unit.
The total cost gap is GH¢0.67 × 180,000 = GH¢120,600.