FM – L2 – Q54 – Discounted Cash Flow

Kumasi Motors Ltd, a manufacturer of car accessories, is considering a new product line. This project would commence at the start of Kumasi Motors Ltd’s next financial year and run for four years. Kumasi Motors Ltd’s next year-end is 31st December 2005.

The following information relates to the project:
A feasibility study costing GH¢8 million was completed earlier this year but will not be paid for until March 20X6. The study indicated that the project was technically viable.

Capital expenditure
If Kumasi Motors Ltd proceeds with the project, it would need to buy new plant and machinery costing GH¢180 million to be paid for at the start of the project. It is estimated that the new plant and machinery would be sold for GH¢25 million at the end of the project.
If Kumasi Motors Ltd undertakes the project, it will sell an existing machine for cash at the start of the project for GH¢2 million. This machine had been scheduled for disposal at the end of 20X7 for GH¢1 million.

Market research
Industry consultants have supplied the following information:
Market size for the product is GH¢1,100 million in 20X5. The market is expected to grow by 2% per annum.

Market share projections should Kumasi Motors Ltd proceed with the project are as follows:

20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
Market share 0.07 0.09 0.15

Subcontractors
Some of the work on the project would be performed by subcontractors who would be paid the following amounts:

Year 20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
Payments to subcontractors (GH¢ million) 10 12 15 15

Fixed overheads
Incremental fixed overheads (all cash expenses) will be GH¢5 million in each of the four years of the project.

Labour costs
At the start of the project, employees currently working in another department would be transferred to work on the new product line. These employees currently earn GH¢3.6 million. An employee currently earning GH¢2 million would be promoted to work on the new line at a salary of GH¢3 million per annum. A new employee would be recruited to fill the vacated position.
As a direct result of introducing the new product line, employees in another department currently earning GH¢4 million would have to be made redundant at the end of 20X6 and paid redundancy pay of GH¢6 million at the end of 20X7.

Material costs
The company holds a stock of Material X which cost GH¢6.4 million last year. There is no other use for this material. If it is not used, the company would have to dispose of it at a cost to the company of GH¢2 million in 20X6. This would occur early in 20X6.
Material Z is also in stock and will be used on the new line. It cost the company GH¢3.5 million some years ago. The company has no other use for it, but could sell it on the open market for GH¢3 million early in 20X6.

Further information
The year-end payables are paid in the following year.
The company’s cost of capital is a constant 10% per annum.
It can be assumed that operating cash flows occur at the year-end.
Time 0 is 1st January 20X6 (t1 is 31st December 20X6, etc.)

Required
Calculate the net present value of the proposed new product line (work to the nearest million).

Cash flows

Machine 20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
New machine (180) 25
Existing machine 2

Operating flows 20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
Sales W1 79 103 175
Purchases W2 (32) (48) (57) (73)
Payments to subcontractors (10) (12) (15) (15)
Fixed overhead (5) (5) (5) (5)
Labour costs:
Transferred staff
Promotion (1) (1) (1) (1)
Redundancy (6)
Material X 2
Material Z (3)
Net operating flows (47) 7 25 81

Year 0 1 2 3 4
Net operating flows (47) 7 25 81
Machine flows (178) (6) 25
Feasibility study (8)
Net cash flow (178) (55) 1 25 106
Discount factor (10%) 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683
NPV (178) (50) 1 19 72

NPV = -178 – 50 + 1 + 19 + 72 = -GH¢136 million

WORKINGS

(1) Sales

20X5 20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
Market size 1,100 1,122 1,144 1,167 1,191
Market share 0.07 0.09 0.15 0.15
Sales 79 103 175 179

(2) Purchases

20X6 20X7 20X8 20X9
Opening payables 8 10 11
Add purchases 40 50 58 62
Less closing payables (8) (10) (11)
Cash for purchases 32 48 57 73