- 20 Marks
QMDM – APR 2023 – L2 – Q4 – Time Series Forecasting for Chocolate Consumption
Explain terms, forecast next four periods with seasonality and average trend for chocolate data.
Question
The following data is number of bars of chocolate consumed by ladies in a tertiary institution in Ga-East Municipal area.
| T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y | 986 | 1245 | 902 | 704 | 812 | 1048 | 706 | 514 |
| (a) Explain the terms de-seasonalized trend, seasonal index and forecast value in relation to the data above. [7 Marks] | ||||||||
| (b) Forecast with seasonality and average trend the values for the next four periods of the above time series. [18 Marks] |
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