Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

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FM – May 2016 – L3 – Q6b – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Calculating the betas, required rates of return, and stock prices for three securities based on market data and forecasts.

Question

The expected return on the market portfolio (estimated from past data) is 12% p.a. with a standard deviation of 15% and the risk-free rate of 4% p.a. The actual prices, last year dividends, and the covariances from three securities (A, B, C) with the market are given in the table below:

Security	Actual Price (N)	Last Year Dividend (N)	Covariance with Market
A	107	1.30	0.025650
B	618	18.00	0.018675
C	1,350	22.00	0.029025

You are required to:

i.

Calculate the betas and the required rates of return of securities A, B, and C. (3 Marks)

ii.

In the table below, you have the market consensus forecast of 12-month price targets, ex-dividends, and the expected dividend growth rate of the securities.

Security	12-month price target (N)	Dividend growth rate (%)
A	122.50	12
B	740.00	10
C	1,500.00	11

Assuming the dividends are paid in 12 months exactly, compute the required stock price for the 3 stocks and state your conclusion. (4 Marks)

iii.

Considering the results in (ii) above, explain briefly what will be your strategy? (1 Mark)

Answer

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Tags: Beta, CAPM, Dividends, Market Portfolio, Required Return, Stock valuation
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – May 2016 – L3 – Q1 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Calculation of Adjusted Present Value (APV) for a proposed project and analysis of its application in investment appraisal.

Question

Katam Pie has adopted a strategy of diversification into many different industries in order to reduce risk for the company’s shareholders. This has resulted in frequent changes in the company’s gearing level and widely fluctuating risks of individual investments. Presently, the company has a target debt-to-asset ratio i.e., D/(E + D) of 25%, an equity beta of 2.25, and a pre-tax cost of debt of 5%.

On January 1, 2016, Katam Plc with a year-end of December 31, is considering the purchase of a new machine costing N750million, which would enable it to diversify into a new line of business. The new business will generate sales of N522.50million in the first year, growing at 4.5% p.a. A constant contribution margin ratio of 40% can be expected throughout the 15-year life of the project. Incremental fixed cash costs will be N84.32million in the first year, growing by 5.4% p.a.

A regional development bank has offered a 10-year loan of 3% interest to finance 40% of the cost of the machine. The balance of 60% will be financed equally by a 10-year commercial loan (with annual interest of 5%) and a fresh round of equity. The issue cost on the commercial loan will be 1%, and the new equity will incur an issue cost of 3%. All issue costs are on the gross amount raised for the respective capital. Issue costs on debt are allowed for tax purposes.

A firm that is already in the business of the new project has a gearing ratio of 20% (debt to asset) and a cost of equity of 18.1%. Its corporate debt is risk-free.

The tax rate is 30% payable in the year the profit is made. Tax depreciation of 20% on cost is available on the new machine. Katam Pie has a weighted average cost of capital of 14% and a cost of equity of 17.5%. The risk-free rate is 4%, and the market risk premium is 7%.

You are required to:

Estimate the Adjusted Present Value (APV) and advise whether the project should be accepted? (21 Marks)
Explain:
i. The circumstances under which the use of APV is appropriate. (5 Marks)
ii. The major advantages and limitations of the use of the APV method. (4 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Adjusted Present Value, Cost of Capital, Investment Appraisal, Risk Assessment, Tax Effects
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – Nov 2016 – L3 – SB – Q4 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate Gugi Plc.'s proposed investment in a foreign factory, considering costs, revenues, tax, and exchange rate impacts.

Question

Gugi Plc. is a highly successful manufacturing company operating in Nigeria. In addition to sales within Nigeria, the company also exports to a foreign country (with currency F$) along the ECOWAS sub-region. The export sales generate annual net cash inflow of ₦50,000,000. Gugi Plc. is now considering whether to establish a factory in the foreign country and stop exporting from Nigeria to the country. The project is expected to cost F$1 billion, including F$200million for working capital.

A suitable existing factory has been located, and production could commence immediately. A payment of F$950million would be required immediately, with the remainder payable at the end of year one. The following additional information is available:

Annual production and sales in units: 110,000
Unit selling price: F$5,000
Unit variable cost: F$2,000
Unit royalty payable to Gugi Plc: ₦300
Incremental annual cash fixed costs: F$50million

Assume that the above cash items will remain constant throughout the expected life of the project of 4 years. At the end of year 4, it is estimated that the net realisable value of the non-current assets will be F$1.40billion.

It is the policy of the company to remit the maximum funds possible to the parent (i.e., Gugi Plc.) at the end of each year. Assume that there are no legal complications to prevent this.

If the new factory is set up and export to the foreign country is stopped, it is expected that new export markets of a similar worth in North Africa could replace the existing exports.

Production in Nigeria is at full capacity, and there are no plans for further capacity expansion.

Tax on the company’s profits is at a rate of 40% in both countries, payable one year in arrears. A double taxation agreement exists between Nigeria and the foreign country, and no double taxation is expected to arise. No withholding tax is levied on royalties payable from the foreign country to Nigeria.

Tax allowable “depreciation” is at a rate of 25% on a straight-line basis on all non-current assets.

The Directors of Gugi Plc. believe that the appropriate risk-adjusted cost of capital for the project is 13%.

Annual inflation rates in Nigeria and the foreign country are currently 5.6% and 10%, respectively. These rates are expected to remain constant in the foreseeable future. The current spot exchange rate is F$1.60 = N1. You may assume that the exchange rate reflects the purchasing power parity theorem.

Required:
a. Evaluate the proposed investment from the viewpoint of Gugi Plc.
Notes:
i. Show all workings and calculations to the nearest million.
ii. State all reasonable assumptions. (18 Marks)

b. State TWO further information and analysis that might be useful in the evaluation of this project?

(2 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cash Flow Analysis, Exchange Rate, Foreign Currency, Investment Appraisal, Taxation
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: NOV 2016

FM – Nov 2016 – L3 – SB – Q2 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Calculate the value of the convertible loan stock, expected growth rate in equity price, and provide recommendations on whether to hold or sell the security.

Question

Honey Comb Plc has issued 10% convertible loan stock, which is due for redemption in 10 years’ time (i.e., December 31, 2025). The option to convert is open only for another two years. If conversion does not take place by December 31, 2017, the option will lapse. The issue was sold to the public at a price of N920 for N1000 of convertible loan stock. The conversion rate at January 1, 2016 was 250 equity shares for N1000 of stock. Non-convertible loan stock in a similar risk class is presently yielding 12%. The market price of Honey Comb Plc equity shares has been increasing steadily over time, reflecting the performance of the company. The shares currently pay a dividend of N0.30 per share. The current price of the convertible security is N960, and each share is currently valued at N3.00. A holder of the convertible loan stock is considering whether to sell his holdings or continue to hold the stock. Ignore taxation while answering the questions.

Required:
a. What is the value of the security as simple unconvertible loan stock? (5 Marks)

b. What is the expected minimum annual rate of growth in the equity share price that is required to justify the holder of convertible loan stock holding on to the security before the option expires? (12 Marks)

c. What recommendation would you make to the holder of the security and why? (3 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Convertible Loan Stock, Equity Shares, Financial management, Investment Decision, Valuation
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: NOV 2016

FM – May 2017 – L3 – Q7 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Provide background on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its use in project evaluation.

Question

ou were recently appointed by a major manufacturing company as the senior accountant at one of the divisions of the company, which is located in Makurdi. You have received the following memorandum from the divisional manager:

“I tried to see you today, but you were busy with the auditors.
I have to go to a meeting at the head office on Friday about the new project. We sent to the head office its projected cash flow figures before you arrived. Apparently, one of the head office finance people has discounted our figures, using a rate which was calculated from the Capital Asset Pricing Model. I do not know why they are discounting the figures, because inflation is predicted to be negligible over the next few years. I think that this is all a ploy to stop us from going ahead with the project and let another division have the cash.
I looked up Capital Asset Pricing Model in a finance book which was lying in your office, but I could not make a head or tail of it, and anyway it all seemed to be about buying shares and nothing about our project.
We always use payback for the smaller projects which we do not have to refer to head office. I am going to argue for it now because the project has a payback of less than five years, which is our normal yardstick.
I am very keen to go ahead with the project because I feel that it will secure the medium-term future of our division.
I will be tied up all day tomorrow, so again I will not be able to see you. Could you please make a few notes for me which I can read on the way on Friday morning? I want to know how the Capital Asset Pricing Model is supposed to work, plus any other things which you feel I ought to know for the meeting. I do not want to look like a fool or lose the project because they blind me with science.
As you have probably discovered, I do not know much about finance, so please do not use any technical jargon or complicated maths.”

Required:
Prepare notes for the divisional manager which provide helpful background for the meeting.

Answer

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Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – Nov 2014 – L3 – SA – Q1 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate the financial feasibility of a cement production project using cost of capital, NPV, and MIRR methods.

Question

AK Plc is a company listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. It is involved in property development and sales.

The company currently imports more than 60% of its cement requirements. At a recent meeting of the board of directors, a decision was taken to establish a division for the production of cement in Ore, Ondo State. If the division is set up and the cement production goes ahead, output from the division will be sold to AK Plc and external customers at market price. For planning purposes, it has been decided that the financial viability of the project over the next five years should be determined.

The sum of N2 billion will be required. The sum of N500 million will be spent to acquire an existing factory considered suitable for the project. The balance of N1.5 billion will be applied for the procurement and installation of essential plant and equipment. Tax allowance can be claimed on plant and equipment at a uniform amount over 5 years with NIL scrap value.

A total of N20 million has been spent on various surveys (market, technical, financial, etc.) to date out of which N10 million has been paid. The balance of N10 million is due for payment at the end of year 1.

Production of cement for the next five years is projected as follows:

Year	Bags
1	500,000
2	600,000
3	650,000
4	800,000
5	700,000

A bag of cement sells currently for N2,000 in the open market. This price is expected to increase at the rate of 5% per annum. Variable cost is now N1,000 per bag. This will increase at 4% per annum. Fixed overhead costs will be N50 million at current prices but will rise by 8% per annum. Apportioned head office charges of N25 million at current prices will rise by 10% per annum. Fifty per cent (50%) of the total initial outlay of N2 billion is to be funded with a loan from a Federal Government Development Bank at a concessionary fixed interest rate of 8%, payable at the end of each year. Half of the loan will be repaid at the end of year 3 while the balance will be paid at the end of year 5. The project will require a working capital of 10% of annual revenue, and this should be available at the beginning of each year.

The company uses a current Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 11% to appraise all capital projects. The asset beta of the company is 1.2, equity beta is 1.6, risk-free rate is 5%, while the market risk premium is 7%.

The Finance Director is of the view that it is not appropriate to use the existing WACC to appraise the new project. He has identified a listed company that currently produces cement and packaged fruit drinks. The company has the following financial statistics:

Equity beta: 1.82
Debt beta: 0.4
Debt/Equity ratio: 40%
60% of the market value of the company is attributed to cement production, while 40% of the value is attributed to the fruit drinks division.
The fruit drinks division has an equity beta of 0.8.

The new project is expected to move AK Plc to the target Debt/Equity ratio of 30%. Tax rate is 25% for the two companies and is paid in the year profit is made.

Required:

a. Compute the appropriate cost of capital that AK Plc should use to appraise the cement project and state why you consider this rate more appropriate than the existing WACC of 11%.

Note: Your final cost of capital should be rounded up to the nearest whole number. State any assumptions made. (12 Marks)

b. Compute the Net Present Value (NPV) and Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) of the project, assuming a cost of capital of 13%.

(Work to the nearest N million). (16 Marks)

c. Recommend whether the project should be accepted or not, using both NPV and MIRR methods. (2 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cost of Capital, Modified Internal Rate of Return, Net Present Value, Project Appraisal, Risk Assessment, WACC
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: NOV 2014

FM – May 2022 – L3 – Q3 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Calculate NPV of an investment, discuss inflation's impact, and recommend an optimal project under capital constraints.

Question

Opeyemi operates in an economy that has almost zero inflation. Management ignores inflation when evaluating investment projects because it is very low and considered insignificant. Opeyemi is evaluating a number of similar, alternative investments. The company uses an after-tax cost of capital of 6% and has already completed the evaluation of two investments.

The third investment is a new product that would be produced on a just-in-time basis and is expected to have a life of three years. This investment requires an immediate cash outflow of N200,000, which does not qualify for tax depreciation. The expected residual value at the end of the project’s life is N50,000.

A draft financial statement showing the values that are specific to this investment for the three years is as follows:

Year	1	2	3
Sales	230,000	350,000	270,000
Production Costs:
Materials	54,000	102,000	66,000
Labour	60,000	80,000	70,000
Other*	80,000	90,000	80,000
Profit	36,000	78,000	54,000
Closing Receivables	20,000	30,000	25,000
Closing Payables	6,000	9,000	8,000

*Other production costs shown above include depreciation calculated using the straight-line method.

The company is liable to pay corporate tax at a rate of 30% of its profits. One half of this is payable in the same year as the profit is earned, and the remainder is payable in the following year.

Required:

a. Calculate the net present value of the above investment proposal. (14 Marks)

b. Explain how the above investment project would be appraised if there were to be a change in the rate of inflation, so that it became too significant to be ignored. (3 Marks)

c. The evaluation of the other two investments is shown below:

Investment	Initial Investment	Net Present Value
W	300,000	75,000
Y	100,000	27,000

The company only has N400,000 of funds available. All of the investment proposals are non-divisible. None of the investments may be repeated.

Required:

Recommend, with supporting calculations, which of the three investment proposals should be accepted. (3 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Financial management, Inflation impact, Investment Selection, NPV Calculation
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – May 2023 – L3 – Q3 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate Tinco Limited's expansion project using financial metrics, assess sensitivity to contribution and tax rate changes, and incorporate capital allowances.

Question

Tinco Limited (TL) is considering an expansion project. The project will involve the acquisition of an automated production machine costing ₦11,000,000 and payable now. The machine is expected to have a disposal value at the end of 5 years, which is equal to 10% of the initial expenditure.

The following schedule reflects a recent market survey regarding the estimated annual sales revenue from the expansion project over the project’s five-year life:

Level of Demand	₦’000	Probability
High	16,000	0.25
Medium	12,000	0.50
Low	8,000	0.25

It is expected that the contribution to sales ratio will be 50%. Additional expenditure on fixed overheads is expected to be ₦1,800,000 per annum. TL incurs a 20% tax rate on corporate profits. Corporate tax is paid one year in arrears.

TL’s after-tax nominal (money) discount rate is 15.5% per annum. A uniform inflation rate of 5% per annum will apply to all costs and revenues during the life of the project. All of the values above have been expressed in terms of current prices.

You can assume that all cash flows occur at the end of each year and that the initial investment does not qualify for capital allowances.

Required:

a.
i. Evaluate the proposed expansion from a financial perspective. (10 Marks)
ii. Calculate and interpret the sensitivity of the project to changes in:

The expected annual contribution (3 Marks)
The tax rate (2 Marks)

b.
You have now been advised that the capital cost of the expansion will qualify for written down allowances at the rate of 25% per annum on a reducing balance basis. Also, at the end of the project’s life, a balancing charge or allowance will arise equal to the difference between the scrap proceeds and the tax written down value.

You are required to calculate the financial impact of these allowances. (5 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Capital Budgeting, Discount rate, NPV, Sensitivity Analysis, Tax Allowances
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – Nov 2016 – L3 – Q1 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate TP’s project considering current market values and assess the risk-adjusted cost of capital.

Question

Tinko Plc (TP) repairs and maintains heavy-duty trucks, with workshops in Nigeria and several other African countries. TP is considering an expansion project in response to the government’s recent policy aimed at encouraging mechanized farming through the “Graduates Back To Land (GBTL)” program, which will likely increase demand for heavy-duty machinery.

Below are extracts from the most recent Statement of Financial Position of TP:

Item	₦’million
Share capital	200
Reserves	320
Non-current liabilities	760
Current liabilities	60
Total	1,340

TP’s Free Cash Flows to Equity (FCFE) is currently estimated at ₦153 million, and it is expected to grow at 2.5% per annum indefinitely. The equity shareholders require a return of 11%.

The non-current liabilities consist entirely of bonds redeemable in four years at par with a coupon rate of 5.4%. The debt is rated BB, and the credit spread on BB-rated debt is 80 basis points above the risk-free rate.

In light of the GBTL program, TP is contemplating entry into the mechanized farming support industry through a four-year project, recognizing that after four years, competition may intensify significantly.

The project requires an initial investment of ₦84 million and is expected to generate the following after-tax cash flows:

Additional Information:

Scenario Adjustments:
- There is a 25% probability that the GBTL program will not grow as expected in the first year. If this occurs, the present value of the project’s cash flows over its four-year life will be 50% of the original estimates.
- If the GBTL program grows as expected in the first year, there is still a 20% probability that growth will slow in subsequent years, reducing the present value of cash flows to 40% of the original estimates for those years.
Sale Option: Feedwell Limited (FL) has offered ₦100 million to buy the project from TP at the start of the second year. TP is evaluating if this option adds strategic value to the project.
Abako Plc, a comparable company, operates primarily in non-agricultural services, similar to TP, and has an equity beta of 1.6. Abako derives approximately 80% of its revenues from services outside agriculture, with an asset beta of 0.80. Abako’s capital structure consists of 80 million shares trading at ₦4.50 per share and debt of ₦340 million.
The debt is trading at ₦1,050 per ₦1,000 with a zero debt beta.
Risk-free rate: 4%; Market risk premium: 6%; Corporate tax rate: 20%.

Requirements: a. Calculate TP’s current total market value of:

i. Equity (3 Marks)
ii. Bonds (4 Marks) b. Determine the risk-adjusted cost of capital for the new project (to the nearest percent) (10 Marks) c. Estimate the value of the project:
i. Without factoring in the potential strategic value or synergy from the project (5 Marks)
ii. With FL’s offer, assuming it reflects the market’s view of the project’s value (5 Marks) d. Clearly state the assumptions made in your calculations (3 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cost of Capital, Debt Valuation, Equity Valuation, Market Value, Project Valuation, Risk Adjustment
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques

FM – May 2024 – L3 – SB – Q4 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Analyze forward rates and bond valuation, calculate bond prices and YTM, evaluate price changes over time, and interpret modified duration.

Question

The following information is on 3 default-free bonds.

Bonds	Price (₦)	Coupon (%)	Redemption Value (₦)	Maturity (Years)
A	105	10	100	1
B	96	4	100	2
C	98	6	100	3

Required:

a. Estimate the two-year forward rate at the end of year 1 and the one-year forward rate at the end of year 2.
(5 Marks)

b. You are considering buying a three-year 9% annual-coupon paying bond with a face value of ₦1,000. The bond is default-free.

i. Calculate the price of the bond and its yield to maturity. Clearly explain why you may not realize the calculated yield.
(6 Marks)

ii. One year after purchasing the bond at the price you have calculated, if there are no changes in market interest rates, do you expect the price of the bond to increase, fall, or remain constant? Explain.
(2 Marks)

iii. Estimate and interpret the modified duration of the bond. Identify the key limitations of modified duration in bond analysis.
(7 Marks)

(Total 20 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Bond pricing, Bond Valuation, Forward Rate Calculation, Modified Duration, Reinvestment Risk, Yield to Maturity
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: MAY 2024

FM – May 2024 – L3 – SB – Q2 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate a proposed investment for Keke Plc, identify errors in the initial appraisal, recalculate NPV, and discuss IRR and business risk issues.

Question

The following draft appraisal of a proposed investment project has been prepared for the Finance Director of Keke Plc (KP) by a trainee accountant. The project is consistent with the current business operations of KP.

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Sales (units/yr)	250,000	400,000	500,000	250,000
Contribution (₦000)	13,300	21,280	26,600	13,300	–
Fixed costs (₦000)	(5,300)	(5,618)	(5,955)	(6,312)	–
Depreciation (₦000)	(4,375)	(4,375)	(4,375)	(4,375)	–
Interest payments (₦000)	(2,000)	(2,000)	(2,000)	(2,000)	–
Taxable profit (₦000)	1,625	9,287	14,270	613
Taxation (₦000)	–	(488)	(2,786)	(4,281)	(184)
Profit after tax (₦000)	1,625	8,799	11,484	(3,668)	(184)
Scrap value (₦000)	–	–	–	2,500	–
After-tax cash flows (₦000)	1,625	8,799	11,484	(1,168)	(184)
Discount at 10%	0.909	0.826	0.751	0.683	0.621
Present values (₦000)	1,477	7,268	8,624	(798)	(114)

Net present value = (16,457,000 – 20,000,000) = ₦3,543,000, so reject the project.

Additional Information:

The initial investment is ₦20 million.
Selling price: ₦120/unit (current price terms), selling price inflation is 5% per year.
Variable cost: ₦70/unit (current price terms), variable cost inflation is 4% per year.
Fixed overhead costs: ₦5,000,000/year (current price terms), fixed cost inflation is 6% per year.
₦2,000,000/year of the fixed costs are development costs that have already been incurred and are being recovered by annual charges to the project.
Investment financing is by a ₦20 million loan at a fixed interest rate of 10% per year.
Keke Plc can claim 25% reducing balance tax allowable depreciation on this investment and pays taxation one year in arrears at a rate of 30% per year.
The scrap value of machinery at the end of the four-year project is ₦2,500,000.
The real weighted average cost of capital of Keke is 7% per year.
The general rate of inflation is expected to be 4.7% per year.

Required:

a. Identify and comment on any errors in the investment appraisal prepared by the trainee accountant.
(4 Marks)

b. Prepare a revised calculation of the net present value of the proposed investment project and comment on the project’s acceptability.
(12 Marks)

c. Discuss the problems faced when undertaking investment appraisal in the following areas and comment on how these problems can be overcome:
i. An investment project has several internal rates of return;
ii. The business risk of an investment project is significantly different from the business risk of current operations.
(4 Marks)

(Total: 20 Marks)

Answer

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Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: MAY 2024

FM – May 2018 – L3 – SB – Q2 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate two corporate bonds for investment based on price, yield to maturity, and duration.

Question

Kazaure Limited has a cash surplus of N20m, which the financial manager is keen to invest in corporate bonds. He has identified two potential investment opportunities in two different companies which are both rated A by the major credit rating agencies.

Bond A: The issuer plans to raise an N500m 2-year bond with a coupon rate of 10%. The bond is redeemable at a premium of 8% to nominal value.

Bond B: The issuer plans to raise an N800m 3-year bond with a coupon rate of 12% and redeemable at par.

The annual spot yield curve for government bonds is:

Term	Spot Yield
1-Year	9.50%
2-Year	10.40%
3-Year	10.50%

Extract from a major credit rating agency’s website:

Rating	1-Year Spread	2-Year Spread	3-Year Spread
AAA	6	16	28
AA	15	25	40
A	20	30	50

Required:

a. For a nominal value of N1,000, calculate the theoretical issue prices of the two bonds and indicate how many of each of the bonds Kazaure Limited can buy, assuming it invests in only one of them. (5 Marks)
Note: Calculate issue prices to the nearest Naira.

b. Irrespective of your answer in (a), assume Bond A is issued at ₦1,054 and Bond B is issued at N1,026. Calculate the yield to maturity of each bond at the time of issue. (5 Marks)

c. Calculate the duration of each bond. What does duration measure? (6 Marks)

d. If you expect interest rates to increase in the market, which of the two bonds, A or B, would you like to buy and why? (4 Marks)
Note: No calculation is required.

Answer

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Tags: Bond Valuation, Duration, Interest Rate Risk, Investment strategy, Yield to Maturity
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: MAY 2018

FM – May 2018 – L3 – SA – Q1 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate the NPV of Plateau Plc.'s project, assess sensitivity, discuss political risk, and explore real options for the project.

Question

Plateau Plc. (PT) is a Nigerian company that manufactures and sells innovative products. Following favourable market research that cost N4,000,000, PT has developed a new product. It plans to set up a production facility in Kano, although its board had contemplated setting up the facility in an overseas country. The project will have a life of four years.

The selling price of the new product will be N5,900 per unit, with sales in the first year to December 31, 2019, expected to be 120,000 units, increasing by 5% per annum thereafter. Relevant direct labour and material costs are expected to be N3,400 per unit, and incremental fixed production costs are expected to be N60 million per annum. The selling price and costs are stated in December 31, 2018 prices and are expected to increase at a rate of 3% per annum. Research and development costs to December 31 will amount to N25 million.

Investment in working capital will be N30 million on December 31, 2018, and this will increase in line with sales volumes and inflation. Working capital will be fully recoverable on December 31, 2022.

The company will need to rent a factory during the life of the project. Annual rent of N20 million will be payable in advance on December 31 each year and will not increase over the life of the project.

Plant and machinery will cost N1 billion on December 31, 2018. The plant and machinery are expected to have a resale value of N300 million (at December 31, 2022, prices) at the end of the project. The plant and machinery will attract 20% (reducing balance) capital allowances in the year of expenditure and in every subsequent year of ownership by the company, except in the final year when there will be a balancing allowance or charge.

Assume a corporate tax rate of 20% per annum in the foreseeable future and that tax flows arise in the same year as the cash flows which gave rise to them.

The directors are concerned by rumours in the industry of research by a rival company into a much cheaper alternative product. However, the rumours suggest that this research will take another year to complete, and if successful, it will take a further year before the alternative product comes on the market.

An appropriate weighted average cost of capital for the project is 10% per annum.

Required:

a. Calculate, using money cash flows, the NPV of the project on December 31, 2018, and advise the company whether to proceed with the project or not.
(15 Marks)

b. Calculate and interpret the sensitivity of the project to a change in:

(i) The annual rent of the factory (2 Marks)
(ii) The weighted average cost of capital (4 Marks)

c. If the board of PT decided to set up the manufacturing facility overseas, advise the board on how political risk could change the value of the project and how it might limit its effects. (4 Marks)

d. Discuss briefly FOUR real options available to PT in relation to the new project. (5 Marks)

(Total 30 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Cash Flow, Investment Appraisal, NPV, Political Risk, Real options, Sensitivity Analysis, WACC
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: MAY 2018

FM – Nov 2023 – L3 – SB – Q3 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Calculate and compare NPV for two proposals involving equipment purchase vs. existing machinery for contract fulfillment.

Question

Niko Plc, a large equity-financed company, has a year-end of December 31. It must fulfill a contract in Abuja and has two proposals to choose from: Proposal A (purchasing new machinery) and Proposal B (using existing machinery).

Proposal A:

Outlay of N312,500,000 on December 31, 2023, for new plant and machinery.
Projected net cash inflows (before tax, in nominal terms):
- 2024: N200,000,000
- 2025: N275,000,000
- 2026: N350,000,000
Scrap value: N25,000,000 at end of 2026.

Proposal B:

Uses a machine with a net realizable value of N250 million, with an alternative sale value of N300 million on January 1, 2025, if unused.
Cash inflows (in nominal terms):
- 2024: N350,000,000
- 2025: N350,000,000
Labour costs:
- 2024: N100 million (replacement staff cost of N110 million)
- 2025: N108 million (replacement staff cost of N118.8 million)
Machine residual value: N0 at project end in 2025.

Additional Details:

Working capital: 10% of year-end cash inflows, released upon project completion.
Expected annual inflation rates: 2024 – 10%, 2025 – 8%, 2026 – 6%, 2027 – 5%.
Real cost of capital: 10%.
Income tax: 40%, payable one year after the accounting period.
Capital allowances: 20% reducing balance for Proposal A’s plant and machinery.

Required:

a. Calculate the NPV at December 31, 2023, for each proposal. (17 Marks)
b. State any reservations about making an investment decision based on these NPV figures. (3 Marks)

Answer:

Answer

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Tags: Capital Allowance, Cash Flow, Discount rate, Investment Appraisal, NPV, Project evaluation
Level: Level 3

Topic: Investment Appraisal Techniques
Series: NOV 2023

FM – Nov 2022 – L3 – Q4 – Investment Appraisal Techniques

Evaluate the decision to invest in an innovative beverage using real options and the Black-Scholes model.

Question

Tayo Kayode (TK) is a highly successful beverage company listed on the Nigerian stock market. Its products are particularly attractive to the younger generation.

Eko Laboratory (EL) has developed an innovative synthetic, alcoholic beverage – the Younky.

It is believed that the product, if manufactured commercially, will be popular among the youths.

TK has been offered a license to produce the Younky on the condition that it commences production within the next twelve months. In the last board meeting, the Marketing Director, Kehinde Kay, presented the following preliminary evaluation of the project.

Kehinde recommended that the project should thus be rejected.

However, the Finance Director (FD), Ben Okon, argued that conventional NPV analysis undervalues projects with high uncertainty as the value of embedded real options is often ignored. He suggested that the possibility of delaying the project for up to twelve months effectively gives TK a call option on development and that if market forecasts improve over the next year, then the company can benefit. To get the ‘right answer,’ he concluded, option values must be incorporated.

The current long-term government bond yield is 5%. The expected standard deviation of future cash flows is estimated to be 35%.

Required:

a. Comment on the views of the Marketing and Finance Directors. (5 Marks)
b. Using the Black-Scholes option pricing model for a European call option, estimate the value of the option to commercially develop and market the Younky. Provide a recommendation as to whether or not TK should manufacture the Younky. (10 Marks)
c. Comment on modeling the possibility of delay as a European call option. (5 Marks)

(Total 20 Marks)

Answer

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Tags: Black-Scholes Model, Investment Appraisal, Option pricing, Real options, Strategic Investment Decisions
Level: Level 3